How the Stein and Johnson Voters, & the #NeverHillary progressives helped elect Trump

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Combat ignorance. Read.

First of all, I want to say that I recognize that the racists and the misogynists and the scared, uneducated white people are the ones primarily responsible for electing Trump.

But there is another dynamic that really needs to be addressed.  A lot of progressives, and a lot of millennials didn’t want to vote for Hillary. Some were Bernie supporters who were understandably angry and hurt by the DNC. Others just got caught up in the #NeverHillary movement, that was probably promoted by the Trump campaign. Many of them proclaimed their intentions to “vote their conscience.”

So they voted third party.

After Trump’s surprising victory, I decided to dig into the numbers of third party voters.

First I looked at Stein.  As a long-time Bernie supporter, (who voted for Hillary on November 8) I know a lot of folks who left the Bernie camp and went for Stein, in spite of the fact that Bernie successfully transformed the agenda of the Democratic Party into something much more progressive than it would have been without his wildly successful movement.

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Escape This dystopian reality!  Enjoy some dystopian fiction. 



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Let’s pretend that Stein didn’t exist. Let’s pretend that the #NeverHillary movement didn’t exist. Progressive Stein voters would have gone to Hillary. Let’s pretend that 90% of the Stein voters voted for Hillary instead.  And that for some bizarre reason, 10% of them voted for Trump.

Then let’s pretend that Johnson didn’t exist. Most of his supporters are overwhelmingly young. He was a candidate who, like Clinton, supported civil liberties, LGBT rights, the legalization of marijuana, internet freedom. So let’s pretend that 75% of the Johnson voters voted for Hillary instead, and that 25% of them voted for Trump.  

And let’s look at four states.  Florida. Pennsylvania. Michigan. Wisconsin.

Here is what I found when I crunched the numbers.

Hillary would have won all four states. 

 

PennsylvaniaNumber of Votes
Trump2,912,315
Clinton2,844,323
Stein48,996
Johnson142,621
Trump loses with
10% of Stein + 25% of Johnson2,952,870
Clinton wins with
90% of Stein and 75% of Johnson2,995,385
FloridaNumber of Votes
Trump4,591,278
Clinton4,462,415
Stein63,660
Johnson204,826
Trump loses with
10% of Stein + 25% of Johnson4,648,851
Clinton wins with4,673,329
90% of Stein and 75% of Johnson
MichiganNumber of Votes
Trump2,258,166
Clinton2,241,930
Stein171,585
Johnson51,043
Trump loses with
10% of Stein + 25% of Johnson2,288,085
Clinton wins with
90% of Stein and 75% of Johnson2,434,639
Wisconsin
Trump1,404,869
Clinton1,377,880
Stein106,107
Johnson30,907
Trump loses with
10% of Stein + 25% of Johnson1,423,206
Clinton wins with1,496,557
90% of Stein and 75% of Johnson

 

 

Hillary would be POTUS.

Trump would not be POTUS.

Women’s reproductive rights, LGBT rights, marginalization of people of color, immigrant families being split apart, millions losing health insurance, international policies, tax breaks for the rich, denial of climate change, criminal justice reform, and a Supreme Court legacy that will last a generation. Hundreds of thousands of DACA recipients would not be in danger of deportation. Millions of Muslim Americans would not be in fear of persecution from the government that is charged to protect them.

These are the differences in the two candidates. These are the realities that are going to change under a Trump administration.

I don’t want to hear about TPP or the delusional belief that Trump is going to be less heavy handed with drone strikes than Hillary. I don’t want to hear that you were voting for Stein to honor Bernie’s agenda.That is bullshit. I don’t want to hear that it is the DNC’s fault that Bernie wasn’t nominated. Maybe it was. But Bernie has been in politics a long time, and he knows how things work. He KNEW that a protest vote could result in a Trump presidency. He told us. He begged us. And so many who claimed to support him dishonored his legacy.

But it is nice that you got to vote your conscience.

The racists and misogynists disgust me. But the self righteous progressives disappoint me. I am so mad at you. There is going to be a lot of human suffering in this nation over the next four years. Some of the damage is going to last for a generation or more.

But I am going to work with you over the next four years to protect as many human lives as we can together. Because there is going to be a lot of work to do.

 

3 COMMENTS

  1. Several problems here, the most obvious being that the vast majority of Johnson voters would go to Trump, not Hillary. Secondly, despite the rhetorical shift of Hillary’s camp to the left to placate Bernie’s people, there was little or no guarantee that she would actually follow through on any of it after November 8th. The emails clearly shows that her people were contemptuous of the whole Berner movement, particularly Debbie Wasserman-Schultz’s final statements right before the election, There’s plenty of blame to go around here, especially the FBI actions to keep the taint of scandal alive and the press’ coverage of both Trump and HRC. This outcome is an unmitigated disaster, but this “data-crunching” exercise is just another attempt to “shoot the messenger” when the voters are dismayed with the Democratic Party’s abandonment of their traditional base from the days of FDR- they promote trade deals that send jobs overseas, do nothing while wages stagnate, promote Charter schools that undercut teachers’ unions, etc- read Tom Franks book “Listen, Liberal- What Happened to the Party of the People” and see what’s going on here.

    • Hi Linda. Thanks for your comments. I looked at the Johnson data, and a surprising number of Johnson voters were under 30, and the vast majority under 40. They identified legalized pot, LGBT issues and a live and let live attitude towards immigrants as their primary reasons for voting for Johnson. That is why I put so many of them in the Clinton category. Obviously, the folks who were drawn to Johnson’s economic policies would lean more Republican.

      And I agree that there is plenty of blame to go around, from the DNC to the FBI to Clinton herself, to the social media culture that keeps us segregated in like-minded groups. I focused on third party voters simply because I have been a third party voter many times, starting way way back with John Anderson. Then Jesse Jackson. Most recently Nader. I also know a lot of smart people, (and some not so smart people) who voted Stein. Here in NY, that is fine. But I wanted to look at how it played out in the traditional swing states, and the surprise swing states.